EV car sales have declined in India and globally. Most people blame range anxiety, charging infrastructure, or government subsidies. What we often miss is the shift in customer behaviour.
EVs make up about 4% of total car sales. Tata Motors is the only manufacturer seriously committed to EVs, where EVs account for nearly 13–14% of their passenger vehicle sales. This number is important.
Technology Adoption & the 16% Wall
According to Everett Rogers’ Technology Adoption Life Cycle, Innovators and Early Adopters together make up about 16% of any market. As Tata Motors approaches this level, EV growth naturally slows because the next customer segment behaves differently.
Let’s Break the Myths
Range Anxiety
Over 90% of cars drive only 10–40 km per day. Even the lowest-range EVs (230–250 km) only need charging once every 5–7 days.
Charging Infrastructure
Most cars rarely go on long highway trips. For typical usage, charging overnight at home is enough.
Government Subsidies
Subsidies help early adoption, but long-term EV success depends on reducing battery and component costs, not handouts.
The Real Challenge: Crossing the Chasm
Innovators and early adopters have already bought EVs. The next buyers — the Early Majority — need proof, reliability, and reassurance. This group is critical for mass adoption.
Geoffrey Moore, in Crossing the Chasm, explains that many technologies fail when they cannot transition from early adopters to the mainstream.
Why Two-Wheelers Are Growing Faster
EV two-wheelers target mass buyers, which is why their sales continue to grow. This also explains why traditional two-wheeler manufacturers are scaling faster in EVs.
What Must Change
Manufacturers must adjust product design, pricing, and communication for the early majority. People must be educated that range anxiety and charging concerns are becoming outdated.
If early-majority adoption does not happen, infrastructure investment will slow, creating a dangerous chicken-and-egg problem.
Final Thought
EV makers must recognize the customer shift and evolve accordingly. The next phase of growth depends on it.
Credits: Everett Rogers & Geoffrey Moore
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